A low precipitation supercell spins in the sky above Texas in 2015

scientists have seen “a geographical shift of the nucleus (central impact location) towards the southeast United States. This spatial shift is also accompanied by reduced spatial variance, suggesting LTOs (large tornado outbreaks) have become less dispersed (or more localized) in the recent period.” The findings also report that the frequency over a data collection period between 1950-2019 display less frequency of large tornado outbreaks and reports. “The arrival rate has changed from 124 days during 1950–1980 to 164 days during 1977–2007 and remained relatively constant during later periods, indicating that LTOs are becoming less frequent,” the report stated. What is still unclear is whether there is direct correlation to the jet stream pattern changing and what’s happening at the surface in Tornado Alley. The data supports fewer days with tornadoes, but more days with 30 or more tornadoes. It also appears that more tornadoes are occurring in the deep south, which includes Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas, through the mid-south and as far north as Ohio. Article continues below ADVERTISEMENT A low precipitation supercell spins in the sky above Texas in 2015. (Mark Robinson) A low precipitation supercell spins in the sky above Texas in 2015. (Mark Robinson) If the evidence we have is correct, we need to begin preparing for an increasing number of strong wind events, more hail, and even a change in the jetstream itself. It is possible the jetstream, which is responsible for heat and cold distribution across the globe, could become more amplified and could cause systems to stall and have impacts to one area for a longer period of time. I witnessed this firsthand when covering Hurricane Harvey, which stalled and produced more tropical rainfall than any other cyclone in recorded history when impacting Houston, Texas, in 2017. Over 60 inches of rain fell during that hurricane and closed every major highway in and out of the city for days. There were hundreds of water rescues and the disaster cost a total of $125 billion.

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